Derry City 3-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Derry City face UCD.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
UCD make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 2 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Derry City (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
UCD have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for UCD, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, UCD have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Derry City. A 0.90 PPG lead over UCD (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Derry City, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against UCD — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2022, ended 1–0 with Derry City winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Derry City and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Derry City — key trading statistics (28 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
UCD — key trading statistics (28 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 64% versus UCD 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 50% | UCD 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.75 xG and UCD 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.999 / defence 0.936 | UCD attack 0.844 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.046. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Derry City games / 27 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 59% | Draw 24% | UCD 17%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | UCD 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 70% | UCD 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 59% | Draw 24% | UCD 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Derry City 1.75 / UCD 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.999 / def 0.936 | UCD attack 0.844 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Derry City (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.83
UCD xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs UCD kick off?
Derry City vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 September 2022 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs UCD?
Derry City 3 - 0 UCD.
Where is Derry City vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs UCD part of?
Derry City vs UCD is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 59% chance of winning, UCD a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Derry City and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and UCD?
Record (3 meetings): Derry City 3W | Draws 0 | UCD 0W.
What form are Derry City and UCD in?
Derry City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. UCD (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.00) and UCD's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.84x) against Derry City's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 63/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.21
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.57
0.83
UCD xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
3%
33.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Derry City and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Derry City and 0.83 for UCD, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City come into this having played 28 games, going 14W 10D 4L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, UCD sit at 0.68 PPG from 28 outings (4W 7D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for UCD is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derry City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.18 PPG clear of UCD — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Derry City's home form reads 4W 6D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, UCD have taken 0.67 points per game from 12 outings (2W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.75 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Blended
UCD
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and UCD in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 14W 10D 4L in their last 28 games (1.86 PPG), while UCD have gone 4W 7D 17L in their last 28 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or UCD away?
Derry City's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.50 PPG; UCD away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Derry City or UCD been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, UCD in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 7-1 on 22 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Derry City
0
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Derry City have won 8, UCD have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2023, when Derry City 6-0 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and UCD?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 67%, UCD 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 50% (UCD).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; UCD in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Derry City's recent matches and 42% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 50% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and UCD tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, UCD in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derry City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat UCD 3-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.75 xG and UCD 0.83 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. UCD landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against UCD attack 0.84 / defence 1.31, drawn from 63/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 59% | Draw 24% | UCD 17%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 50%, UCD 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (28 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
UCD's trading profile (28 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. UCD (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.