Derry City 2-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Derry City take on St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derry City's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derry City at 1.60 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Derry City trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 61% versus St Patrick's Athl. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 44% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.03 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.111 / defence 0.774 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.192 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 0.974. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Derry City's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Derry City games / 42 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 35% | Draw 38% | St Patrick's Athl. 27%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.86 | Draw 2.63 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.70. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 35% | Draw 38% | St Patrick's Athl. 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Derry City 1.03 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.111 / def 0.774 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.192 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.222 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.90
St Patrick's Athl. xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 March 2022 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City 2 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 35% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 27% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derry City's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
38%
2.62
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Derry City xG
Total xG
1.93
0.90
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Derry City and 0.90 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derry City's recent record stands at 14W 12D 10L from 36 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 10L across 36 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derry City on 1.50 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 6W 8D 4L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 6W 6D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Derry City are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.56 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Derry City's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.44 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Derry City or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Derry City's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Derry City
3
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 61%, St Patrick's Athl. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Derry City) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Derry City's games and 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Derry City's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out St Patrick's Athl. 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.03 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.90 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.11 / defence 0.77 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.19 / defence 0.76, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 35% | Draw 38% | St Patrick's Athl. 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.50 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.