Derry City 2-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 May 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 0.84 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.829 / defence 1.267 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.877 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 0.858 / away 1.244. Data: 12 Derry City games / 12 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 21% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 48%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.08. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 21% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Derry City 0.84 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.829 / def 1.267 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.877 / def 1.181 | league avg home 0.858 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.38
St Patrick's Athl. xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 17:45 on Monday 24 May 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City 2 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 21% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derry City's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
21%
4.66
30%
3.31
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.22
1.38
St Patrick's Athl. xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
5%
18.57
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 15.0 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Derry City and 1.38 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Derry City's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Derry City
3
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 0.84 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 21% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 48%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.