Derry City 1-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 15 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Derry City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.08 xG and Shelbourne 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.192 / defence 0.756 | Shelbourne attack 0.842 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.136. Derry City's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Derry City games / 9 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 41% | Draw 37% | Shelbourne 22%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.44 | Draw 2.70 | Shelbourne 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 41% | Draw 37% | Shelbourne 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Derry City 1.08 / Shelbourne 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.192 / def 0.756 | Shelbourne attack 0.842 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Derry City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Shelbourne xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Shelbourne kick off?
Derry City vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 April 2022 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Derry City 1 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is Derry City vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Shelbourne part of?
Derry City vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 41% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 22% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Derry City and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Shelbourne in?
Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Derry City home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.19) and Shelbourne's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.84x) against Derry City's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 45/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
41%
2.43
37%
2.71
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Derry City xG
Total xG
1.80
0.72
Shelbourne xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Derry City and 0.72 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Pre-Season
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Derry City
4
Draws
3
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 3, Shelbourne have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 Shelbourne.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Derry City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Derry City 1-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.08 xG and Shelbourne 0.72 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.19 / defence 0.76 against Shelbourne attack 0.84 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 41% | Draw 37% | Shelbourne 22%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Shelbourne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.