Bohemians 0-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.18 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.106 / defence 1.282 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.850 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 0.947 / away 1.025. Data: 2 Bohemians games / 2 St Patrick's Athl. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 37% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 37% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Bohemians 1.18 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.106 / def 1.282 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.850 / def 1.123 | league avg home 0.947 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.12
St Patrick's Athl. xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 April 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Bohemians 0 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 37% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.52
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.29
1.12
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.12 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
5
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as St Patrick's Athl. defy the odds to beat Bohemians 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Bohemians 0-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.18 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.12 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.11 / defence 1.28 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 37% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.