Bohemians 2-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 20 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 5W 3D 2L at Dalymount Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sligo Rovers (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Bohemians against 1.20 for Sligo Rovers. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 67% versus Sligo Rovers 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 58% | Sligo Rovers 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.52 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.161 / defence 1.113 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.055 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.226. Data: 51 Bohemians games / 52 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 39% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 36%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Sligo Rovers 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 80% | Sligo Rovers 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 39% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Bohemians 1.52 / Sligo Rovers 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.161 / def 1.113 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.055 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Sligo Rovers xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 May 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians 2 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 39% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bohemians and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.16) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.05x) against Bohemians's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
39%
2.54
25%
4.00
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.96
1.44
Sligo Rovers xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.44 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 14W 10D 12L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 16W 9D 11L from 36 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Bohemians against 1.58 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.19 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Bohemians's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.72 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 67%, Sligo Rovers 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Bohemians) and 33% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 33%; Sligo Rovers in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Bohemians's recent matches and 39% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 72% of Bohemians's recent games and 33% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Sligo Rovers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Sligo Rovers 2-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.52 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.44 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.16 / defence 1.11 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 39% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 36%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 58%, Sligo Rovers 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.44 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.