Bohemians 1-0 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 6W 1D 3L at Dalymount Park — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sligo Rovers (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Bohemians against 1.60 for Sligo Rovers. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 48% versus Sligo Rovers 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 52% | Sligo Rovers 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.50 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.498 / defence 1.012 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.734 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 1.247. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 21 Bohemians games / 21 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 51% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 23%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Sligo Rovers 4.35. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 50% | Sligo Rovers 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 51% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Bohemians 1.50 / Sligo Rovers 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.498 / def 1.012 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.734 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.012 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sligo Rovers xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians 1 - 0 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 51% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bohemians and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in?
Bohemians (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.50) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.73x) against Bohemians's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.83
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.43
0.93
Sligo Rovers xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
5%
19.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.93 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 9W 4D 8L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 11W 5D 5L from 21 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Sligo Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Bohemians against 1.81 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 7W 2D 2L from 11 away games — 2.09 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.29 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 9W 4D 8L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 11W 5D 5L in their last 21 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Sligo Rovers's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.82 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 54%, Sligo Rovers 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Bohemians) and 27% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bohemians's recent matches and 46% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Bohemians's recent games and 27% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Sligo Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Sligo Rovers 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.50 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.93 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.50 / defence 1.01 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 51% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 23%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 52%, Sligo Rovers 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.48 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.