Bohemians 2-0 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 2 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 4W 2D 4L at Dalymount Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Sligo Rovers (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Bohemians against 1.70 for Sligo Rovers. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 64% versus Sligo Rovers 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 53% | Sligo Rovers 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.37 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.087 / defence 0.942 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.940 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.160. Data: 53 Bohemians games / 53 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 45% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Sligo Rovers 3.57. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 50% | Sligo Rovers 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 45% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Bohemians 1.37 / Sligo Rovers 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.087 / def 0.942 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.940 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sligo Rovers xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 June 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians 2 - 0 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 45% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bohemians and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.09) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.94x) against Bohemians's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.68
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.39
1.03
Sligo Rovers xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.03 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 26W 20D 26L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 30W 19D 23L from 72 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Bohemians against 1.51 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.58 PPG from 36 outings (16W 9D 11L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 13W 9D 14L from 36 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.28 scored and 1.01 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 30W 19D 23L in their last 72 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Bohemians's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.58 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 64%, Sligo Rovers 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bohemians) and 44% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 33%; Sligo Rovers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Sligo Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bohemians's games and 47% of Sligo Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Bohemians's recent games and 44% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Sligo Rovers 2-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.37 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.03 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sligo Rovers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 45% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 28%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 53%, Sligo Rovers 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.36 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.