Bohemians 0-0 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 26 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bohemians (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Shelbourne have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shelbourne away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 61% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | Shelbourne 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.32 xG and Shelbourne 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.200 / defence 1.004 | Shelbourne attack 1.024 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.230. Data: 52 Bohemians games / 52 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 38% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 35%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Shelbourne 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 50% | Shelbourne 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 38% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Bohemians 1.32 / Shelbourne 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.200 / def 1.004 | Shelbourne attack 1.024 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Shelbourne xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Shelbourne kick off?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Bohemians 0 - 0 Shelbourne.
Where is Bohemians vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shelbourne part of?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 38% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bohemians and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Shelbourne in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.20) and Shelbourne's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.02x) against Bohemians's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.78
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.58
1.26
Shelbourne xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.26 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 10D 14L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.14 PPG from 36 outings (10W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Bohemians against 1.14 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bohemians's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 12W 10D 14L in their last 36 games (1.28 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shelbourne away?
Bohemians's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.44 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
5
Draws
2
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Shelbourne have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 61%, Shelbourne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bohemians) and 39% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Shelbourne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Bohemians's games and 50% of Shelbourne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Bohemians's recent games and 39% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bohemians's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians and Shelbourne finished level at 0-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.32 xG and Shelbourne 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Shelbourne landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.20 / defence 1.00 against Shelbourne attack 1.02 / defence 0.83, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 38% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 35%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 47%, Shelbourne 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.28 PPG, Shelbourne 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.