Bohemians 1-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Finn Harps travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Finn Harps, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Finn Harps have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1.70 PPG, Finn Harps 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bohemians, 1 for Finn Harps and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Bohemians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bohemians in-play tendencies (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 52% versus Finn Harps 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 56% | Finn Harps 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.95 xG and Finn Harps 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.426 / defence 1.158 | Finn Harps attack 0.898 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.227. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.426 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Bohemians games / 27 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 53% | Draw 22% | Finn Harps 25%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Finn Harps 4.00. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 50% | Finn Harps 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 53% | Draw 22% | Finn Harps 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Bohemians 1.95 / Finn Harps 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.426 / def 1.158 | Finn Harps attack 0.898 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Finn Harps xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Finn Harps kick off?
Bohemians vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Bohemians 1 - 2 Finn Harps.
Where is Bohemians vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Finn Harps part of?
Bohemians vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 53% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bohemians and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
Record (3 meetings): Bohemians 2W | Draws 0 | Finn Harps 1W.
What form are Bohemians and Finn Harps in?
Bohemians (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Finn Harps (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.43) and Finn Harps's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
53%
1.88
22%
4.55
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.23
1.28
Finn Harps xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
14%
7.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
4%
28.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.28 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 11W 5D 9L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Finn Harps's form line: 7W 6D 12L from 25 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Finn Harps is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bohemians are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Finn Harps.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L).
On the road, Finn Harps have gone 4W 4D 5L from 13 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.04 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Finn Harps
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 11W 5D 9L in their last 25 games (1.52 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Finn Harps away?
Bohemians's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.85 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Finn Harps been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Finn Harps in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Finn Harps runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2021, when Bohemians won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bohemians
3
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Finn Harps have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 21 October 2022, when Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 54%, Finn Harps 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Bohemians and 54% for Finn Harps. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Finn Harps in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Finn Harps?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bohemians's recent matches and 54% of Finn Harps's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Bohemians's matches and 54% of Finn Harps's.
Do Bohemians and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Finn Harps defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps beat Bohemians 1-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.95 xG and Finn Harps 1.28 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.43 / defence 1.16 against Finn Harps attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 25/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 53% | Draw 22% | Finn Harps 25%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Finn Harps win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 56%, Finn Harps 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Finn Harps's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Finn Harps winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Finn Harps (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.