Bohemians 5-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Dundalk meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 May 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.39 xG and Dundalk 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.238 / defence 1.344 | Dundalk attack 0.947 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 0.858 / away 1.244. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Bohemians games / 12 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 41%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Bohemians 1.39 / Dundalk 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.238 / def 1.344 | Dundalk attack 0.947 / def 1.308 | league avg home 0.858 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Dundalk xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Dundalk kick off?
Bohemians vs Dundalk kicked off at 17:45 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Bohemians 5 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Bohemians vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Dundalk part of?
Bohemians vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 32% chance of winning, Dundalk a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bohemians and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.95x) against Bohemians's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
32%
3.09
27%
3.75
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.97
1.58
Dundalk xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
7%
15.04
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.58 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
3
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Dundalk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Dundalk 5-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.39 xG and Dundalk 1.58 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.24 / defence 1.34 against Dundalk attack 0.95 / defence 1.31, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 32% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 41%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.