Bohemians 1-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Drogheda United meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Drogheda United's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Bohemians, 1.00 for Drogheda United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Drogheda United half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 67% versus Drogheda United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 58% | Drogheda United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.99 xG and Drogheda United 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.164 / defence 1.102 | Drogheda United attack 0.947 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.180. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Bohemians games / 53 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 55% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 23%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Drogheda United 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 80% | Drogheda United 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 55% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Bohemians 1.99 / Drogheda United 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.164 / def 1.102 | Drogheda United attack 0.947 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Drogheda United xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Drogheda United kick off?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 May 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Bohemians vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Drogheda United part of?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 55% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bohemians and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Drogheda United in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Drogheda United's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.95x) against Bohemians's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.61
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.22
1.23
Drogheda United xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
14%
7.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
3%
31.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.23 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 14W 10D 12L from 36 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Drogheda United, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 16L across 36 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Bohemians against 1.22 for Drogheda United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 9W 4D 5L from 18 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Drogheda United's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Drogheda United away?
Bohemians's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.72 PPG; Drogheda United away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
2
Draws
4
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Drogheda United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 67%, Drogheda United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Bohemians and 56% for Drogheda United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Drogheda United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Drogheda United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bohemians's games and 50% of Drogheda United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Bohemians's matches and 56% of Drogheda United's.
Do Bohemians and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Drogheda United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians and Drogheda United finished level at 1-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.99 xG and Drogheda United 1.23 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.16 / defence 1.10 against Drogheda United attack 0.95 / defence 1.29, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 55% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 23%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 58%, Drogheda United 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Drogheda United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.44 PPG, Drogheda United 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.