Volos NFC 2-3 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Panetolikos at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC at Panthessaliko Stadio this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadio than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Volos NFC 0.90 PPG, Panetolikos 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 52% versus Panetolikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 58% | Panetolikos 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.23 xG and Panetolikos 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.959 / defence 1.625 | Panetolikos attack 1.139 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.011. Data: 45 Volos NFC games / 45 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 22% | Draw 28% | Panetolikos 49%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Panetolikos 2.04. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Panetolikos 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 22% | Draw 28% | Panetolikos 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Volos NFC 1.23 / Panetolikos 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.959 / def 1.625 | Panetolikos attack 1.139 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Panetolikos xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Panetolikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Panetolikos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Volos NFC 2 - 3 Panetolikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 22% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Volos NFC and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Panetolikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.96) and Panetolikos's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
22%
4.50
28%
3.52
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.10
1.87
Panetolikos xG
4.50
22%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
3%
29.17
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.87 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 18W 15D 19L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos's form line: 15W 12D 25L from 52 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.33 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (10W 4D 11L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 9W 5D 11L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.00 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 18W 15D 19L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 15W 12D 25L in their last 52 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Panetolikos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.36 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Volos NFC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Volos NFC
2
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 5, Panetolikos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 44%, Panetolikos 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Volos NFC) and 56% (Panetolikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 32% of games; Panetolikos in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 60% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Volos NFC's matches and 56% of Panetolikos's.
Do Volos NFC and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Volos NFC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Volos NFC 2-3 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.23 xG and Panetolikos 1.87 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 1.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.96 / defence 1.62 against Panetolikos attack 1.14 / defence 1.11, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 22% | Draw 28% | Panetolikos 49%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 58%, Panetolikos 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.33 PPG, Panetolikos 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.