Volos NFC 1-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Panetolikos at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC at Panthessaliko Stadio this season: 3W 0D 3L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Volos NFC 1.10 PPG, Panetolikos 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Volos NFC register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Panetolikos in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Volos NFC 82% and Panetolikos 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Volos NFC 82% | Panetolikos 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.82 xG and Panetolikos 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.005 / defence 1.338 | Panetolikos attack 0.685 / defence 1.683. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.270. Panetolikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.683 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Volos NFC games / 11 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 52% | Draw 24% | Panetolikos 24%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Panetolikos 4.17. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 67% | Panetolikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 52% | Draw 24% | Panetolikos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Volos NFC 1.82 / Panetolikos 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.005 / def 1.338 | Panetolikos attack 0.685 / def 1.683 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Panetolikos xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Panetolikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Volos NFC 1 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 52% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Volos NFC and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Panetolikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (1.00) and Panetolikos's defence rating (1.68), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.14
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.98
1.16
Panetolikos xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
4%
26.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.16 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 4W 2D 5L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos's form line: 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, 0.73 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Volos NFC are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panetolikos.
Venue Form
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.91 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; Panetolikos in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Panetolikos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.20 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Volos NFC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Volos NFC
2
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 5, Panetolikos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 60%, Panetolikos 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Volos NFC and 80% for Panetolikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Volos NFC's games and 60% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Volos NFC's matches and 80% of Panetolikos's.
Do Volos NFC and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat Volos NFC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Volos NFC 1-2 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.82 xG and Panetolikos 1.16 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Panetolikos outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.00 / defence 1.34 against Panetolikos attack 0.69 / defence 1.68, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 52% | Draw 24% | Panetolikos 24%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Panetolikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 82%, Panetolikos 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Panetolikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.