Volos NFC 0-4 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Olympiakos Piraeus at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadio: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Volos NFC's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Volos NFC, 0 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 55% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 57% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.03 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.022 / defence 1.472 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.191 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.023. Data: 42 Volos NFC games / 42 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 18% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 5.56 | Draw 3.33 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.92. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 18% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Volos NFC 1.03 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.022 / def 1.472 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.191 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 January 2023 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Volos NFC 0 - 4 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 18% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 52% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (1 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 0W.
What form are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
18%
5.42
30%
3.37
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.79
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
5.42
18%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
3%
32.54
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.79 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 17W 15D 17L from 49 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 32W 12D 5L across 49 games — 2.20 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 11W 4D 10L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 15W 7D 3L across 25 trips, a 2.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.69 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 32W 12D 5L in their last 49 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.48 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Volos NFC
2
Draws
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 48%, Olympiakos Piraeus 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Volos NFC) and 48% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 44%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Volos NFC's recent games and 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Volos NFC 0-4 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.03 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.79 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.02 / defence 1.47 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.19 / defence 0.83, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 18% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 57%, Olympiakos Piraeus 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.