Volos NFC 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Olympiakos Piraeus at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadio: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Volos NFC's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Volos NFC, 1 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2023, ended 0–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 51% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 56% | Olympiakos Piraeus 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.78 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.927 / defence 1.456 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.475 / defence 0.677. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.997. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.677 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.475 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 10% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 66%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 10.00 | Draw 4.17 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (66%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 10% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG Volos NFC 0.78 / Olympiakos Piraeus 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.927 / def 1.456 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.475 / def 0.677 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Volos NFC 0 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 10% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 66% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (2 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 2.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
10%
10.30
24%
4.11
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.92
2.14
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
10.30
10%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
12%
8.52
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
1%
87.71
30%
3.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Volos NFC and 2.14 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 21W 16D 22L from 59 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 39W 15D 5L across 59 games — 2.24 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 12W 5D 13L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 18W 9D 3L across 30 trips, a 2.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.85 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 21W 16D 22L in their last 59 games (1.34 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 39W 15D 5L in their last 59 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.37 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Volos NFC
2
Draws
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 50%, Olympiakos Piraeus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Volos NFC) and 50% (Olympiakos Piraeus). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 47%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Volos NFC's matches and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Volos NFC 0-3 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.78 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 2.14 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 2.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.93 / defence 1.46 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.48 / defence 0.68, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 10% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 66%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 56%, Olympiakos Piraeus 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.