Volos NFC 0-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Volos NFC versus OFI in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 4 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos NFC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Volos NFC's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 60% versus OFI 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 60% | OFI 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.74 xG and OFI 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.176 / defence 1.303 | OFI attack 1.006 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.923. Data: 28 Volos NFC games / 28 OFI games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 48% | Draw 28% | OFI 25%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 4.00. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Volos NFC 30% | OFI 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 48% | Draw 28% | OFI 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Volos NFC 1.74 / OFI 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.176 / def 1.303 | OFI attack 1.006 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.923 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
OFI xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs OFI kick off?
Volos NFC vs OFI kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs OFI?
Volos NFC 0 - 1 OFI.
Where is Volos NFC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs OFI part of?
Volos NFC vs OFI is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 48% chance of winning, OFI a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Volos NFC and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and OFI in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. OFI (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Volos NFC's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against OFI's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — OFI's attack (1.01x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.61
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.95
1.21
OFI xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
4%
23.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.21 for OFI, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 11W 11D 13L from 35 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 13L across 35 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Volos NFC against 1.26 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 6W 4D 7L from 17 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 5W 6D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.17 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and OFI in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while OFI have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or OFI away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.29 PPG; OFI away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 4-0 on 23 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
4
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, OFI have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when OFI 3-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 47%, OFI 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Volos NFC) and 53% (OFI). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 29% of games; OFI in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 47% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Volos NFC's matches and 53% of OFI's.
Do Volos NFC and OFI tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, OFI in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OFI defy the odds to beat Volos NFC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Volos NFC 0-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.74 xG and OFI 1.21 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Volos NFC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.18 / defence 1.30 against OFI attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 48% | Draw 28% | OFI 25%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a OFI win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 60%, OFI 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
OFI's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.26 PPG, OFI 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.