Volos NFC 2-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Volos NFC welcome Levadiakos to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 4W 3D 3L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Panthessaliko Stadio. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 0W 3D 4L from 7 Super League 1 matches — 0.43 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Volos NFC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.47 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.43. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Volos NFC's 20% and Levadiakos's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Levadiakos trading profile (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 43% versus Levadiakos 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Volos NFC 29% | Levadiakos 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.55 xG and Levadiakos 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.072 / defence 0.962 | Levadiakos attack 0.566 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.052. Data: 33 Volos NFC games / 7 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 59% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 11%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 1.69 | Draw 3.33 | Levadiakos 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Volos NFC (59%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 20% | Levadiakos 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 59% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 37% | xG Volos NFC 1.55 / Levadiakos 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.072 / def 0.962 | Levadiakos attack 0.566 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Levadiakos xG
37%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Volos NFC 2 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos part of?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 59% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 11% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Volos NFC and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.4%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
59%
1.70
30%
3.34
11%
9.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.13
0.57
Levadiakos xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
9.01
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
56%
1.77
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
2%
42.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 10.6 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.57 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 4L across 7 games — 0.43 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Volos NFC by 1.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.43 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Levadiakos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.75 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Levadiakos have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Volos NFC
0
Draws
7
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 3, Levadiakos have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Volos NFC 25% BTTS, Levadiakos 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Volos NFC and 25% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Levadiakos in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 25% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Volos NFC's recent games and 25% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Levadiakos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Levadiakos 2-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.55 xG and Levadiakos 0.57 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Levadiakos attack 0.57 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 59% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 11%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 29%, Levadiakos 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Levadiakos's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.