Volos NFC 1-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Volos NFC and Lamia meet at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Volos NFC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadio: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Lamia have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Volos NFC's 1.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Lamia's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Volos NFC 1W, Lamia 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Lamia half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 52% versus Lamia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 59% | Lamia 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.54 xG and Lamia 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.037 / defence 1.589 | Lamia attack 0.589 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.044. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Volos NFC games / 49 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 47% | Draw 33% | Lamia 21%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Lamia 4.76. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Volos NFC 50% | Lamia 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 47% | Draw 33% | Lamia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Volos NFC 1.54 / Lamia 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.037 / def 1.589 | Lamia attack 0.589 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Lamia xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Lamia kick off?
Volos NFC vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Volos NFC 1 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Volos NFC vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Lamia part of?
Volos NFC vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 47% chance of winning, Lamia a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Volos NFC and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Lamia?
Record (3 meetings): Volos NFC 1W | Draws 2 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Volos NFC and Lamia in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Lamia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (1.04) and Lamia's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.59x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.59x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
47%
2.13
33%
3.07
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.52
0.98
Lamia xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
4%
22.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.98 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 20W 15D 21L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 8W 18D 30L from 56 games, 0.75 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Volos NFC are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (12W 4D 12L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 5W 9D 14L from 28 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.61 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Lamia in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Lamia have gone 8W 18D 30L in their last 56 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Lamia away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.43 PPG; Lamia away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Volos NFC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Volos NFC won 3-0 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Volos NFC 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Lamia?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 50%, Lamia 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Volos NFC) and 32% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Lamia in 32%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 29% of games; Lamia in 68%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 25% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Volos NFC's recent games and 32% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Lamia tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lamia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Lamia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and Lamia finished level at 1-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.54 xG and Lamia 0.98 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.04 / defence 1.59 against Lamia attack 0.59 / defence 1.21, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 47% | Draw 33% | Lamia 21%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 59%, Lamia 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.