Volos NFC 3-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Volos NFC and Lamia meet at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Volos NFC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadio: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Lamia have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Lamia away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Volos NFC 0W, Lamia 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Lamia half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 64% versus Lamia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 64% | Lamia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.94 xG and Lamia 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.811 / defence 1.266 | Lamia attack 0.562 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.050. Data: 26 Volos NFC games / 26 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 38% | Draw 34% | Lamia 27%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Lamia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.69 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 38% | Draw 34% | Lamia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Volos NFC 0.94 / Lamia 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.811 / def 1.266 | Lamia attack 0.562 / def 1.174 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Lamia xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Lamia kick off?
Volos NFC vs Lamia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Volos NFC 3 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Volos NFC vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Lamia part of?
Volos NFC vs Lamia is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 38% chance of winning, Lamia a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Volos NFC and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Lamia?
Record (1 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 1 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Volos NFC and Lamia in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Lamia (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.81) and Lamia's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.56x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
38%
2.61
34%
2.92
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
1.69
0.75
Lamia xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 13.8 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.75 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 8W 7D 13L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Lamia's form line: 5W 6D 17L from 28 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Volos NFC against 0.75 for Lamia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 3W 3D 8L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.79 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Lamia in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 8W 7D 13L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Lamia have gone 5W 6D 17L in their last 28 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Lamia away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.21 PPG; Lamia away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Volos NFC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Volos NFC won 3-0 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Volos NFC 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Lamia?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 50%, Lamia 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Volos NFC) and 36% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 36% of games; Lamia in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 36% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Volos NFC's recent games and 36% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Lamia tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lamia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Lamia 3-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.94 xG and Lamia 0.75 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.81 / defence 1.27 against Lamia attack 0.56 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 38% | Draw 34% | Lamia 27%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 64%, Lamia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamia's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.11 PPG, Lamia 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.