Volos NFC 1-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 41%, yet in-form Atromitos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Volos NFC vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Volos NFC versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Volos NFC at Panthessaliko Stadio this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Atromitos are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Atromitos half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 63% versus Atromitos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 63% | Atromitos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.22 xG and Atromitos 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.826 / defence 1.253 | Atromitos attack 0.757 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.498 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Volos NFC games / 26 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 30%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Atromitos 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atromitos (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 30% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Volos NFC 1.22 / Atromitos 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.826 / def 1.253 | Atromitos attack 0.757 / def 1.498 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Atromitos xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Atromitos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Volos NFC 1 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Atromitos part of?
Volos NFC vs Atromitos is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 41% chance of winning, Atromitos a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Volos NFC and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Atromitos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Atromitos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.76x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.46
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.22
1.00
Atromitos xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.00 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 9W 8D 13L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Atromitos's form line: 8W 7D 15L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Volos NFC against 1.03 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (6W 2D 7L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 4D 9L from 15 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.07 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Atromitos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Atromitos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.33 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
3
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Atromitos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 47%, Atromitos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Volos NFC) and 53% (Atromitos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 33% of games; Atromitos in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 40% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Volos NFC's matches and 53% of Atromitos's.
Do Volos NFC and Atromitos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Atromitos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 5, as Volos NFC and Atromitos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.22 xG and Atromitos 1.00 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against Atromitos attack 0.76 / defence 1.50, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 30%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 63%, Atromitos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.17 PPG, Atromitos 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.