Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Aris Thessalonikis travel to Panthessaliko Stadio to take on Volos NFC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 4W 2D 2L from 8 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.75 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 2.12 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 3W 0D 1L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.75 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadio than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 4W 2D 2L from 8 outings — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 0.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.62 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Volos NFC 1.75 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.75 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Volos NFC 88% and Aris Thessalonikis 38% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 88% | Aris Thessalonikis 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.40 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.165 / defence 1.258 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.885 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.119. Data: 8 Volos NFC games / 8 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 38% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 31%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 75% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 38% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Volos NFC 1.40 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.165 / def 1.258 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.885 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Aris Thessalonikis xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Volos NFC 1 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 38% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 0.62 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 1.17x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.16
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.64
1.25
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.25 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 4W 2D 2L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 4W 2D 2L from 8 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.75 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Volos NFC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.38 scored and 0.62 conceded. Volos NFC's scoring rate against Aris Thessalonikis's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Volos NFC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 2.25 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
2
Draws
7
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 75%, Aris Thessalonikis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Volos NFC and 50% for Aris Thessalonikis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Aris Thessalonikis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Volos NFC's games and 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Volos NFC's matches and 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's.
Do Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat Volos NFC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Volos NFC 1-2 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.40 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.25 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.17 / defence 1.26 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 38% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 31%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 88%, Aris Thessalonikis 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.75 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.