Volos NFC 0-4 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host AEK Athens FC at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 December 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadio this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AEK Athens FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 2.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Volos NFC have won 1, AEK Athens FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Volos NFC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 57% versus AEK Athens FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 57% | AEK Athens FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.98 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.103 / defence 1.263 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.193 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.024. AEK Athens FC's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Volos NFC games / 40 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 21% | Draw 33% | AEK Athens FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | AEK Athens FC 2.13. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 50% | AEK Athens FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 21% | Draw 33% | AEK Athens FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Volos NFC 0.98 / AEK Athens FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.103 / def 1.263 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.193 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
AEK Athens FC xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Volos NFC 0 - 4 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 21% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC?
Record (1 meetings): Volos NFC 1W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 0W.
What form are Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (1.10) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
21%
4.87
33%
3.08
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.54
AEK Athens FC xG
4.87
21%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
4%
22.74
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.54 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 17W 14D 16L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 24W 9D 14L from 47 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.38 PPG, AEK Athens FC on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L).
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 11W 7D 6L from 24 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.60 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 24W 9D 14L in their last 47 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.54 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Dec 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
1
Draws
8
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, AEK Athens FC have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-2 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 50%, AEK Athens FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Volos NFC) and 42% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Volos NFC's recent games and 42% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Volos NFC 0-4 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.98 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.54 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.10 / defence 1.26 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.70, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 21% | Draw 33% | AEK Athens FC 47%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 57%, AEK Athens FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.38 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.