Volos NFC 1-3 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host AEK Athens FC at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 4W 1D 1L from 6 Super League 1 matches — 2.17 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 games at Panthessaliko Stadio this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.17 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadio than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 4W 1D 1L from 6 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.17 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.17 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.17 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Volos NFC at 2.17 PPG versus AEK Athens FC's 2.17. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Volos NFC register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, AEK Athens FC in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 83% versus AEK Athens FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Volos NFC 100% | AEK Athens FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.87 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.322 / defence 1.072 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.026 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.149. Volos NFC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Volos NFC games / 6 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 52% | Draw 23% | AEK Athens FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | AEK Athens FC 3.85. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Volos NFC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 67% | AEK Athens FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 52% | Draw 23% | AEK Athens FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Volos NFC 1.87 / AEK Athens FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.322 / def 1.072 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.026 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
AEK Athens FC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Volos NFC 1 - 3 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 52% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (1.32) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.39
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.26
AEK Athens FC xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
4%
25.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.26 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 4W 1D 1L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games, 2.17 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 2.17 PPG, AEK Athens FC on 2.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.17 PPG overall — Volos NFC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AEK Athens FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.17 scored and 1.00 conceded. Volos NFC's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or AEK Athens FC away?
Volos NFC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 3.00 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Dec 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
1
Draws
8
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, AEK Athens FC have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-2 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Volos NFC at 67%, AEK Athens FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Volos NFC and 67% for AEK Athens FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play AEK Athens FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Volos NFC's games and 67% of AEK Athens FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Volos NFC's matches and 67% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Volos NFC 1-3 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.87 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.26 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.32 / defence 1.07 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.39, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 52% | Draw 23% | AEK Athens FC 26%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual AEK Athens FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 100%, AEK Athens FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 2.17 PPG, AEK Athens FC 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.