Veria 1-2 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veria at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Veria vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Veria host Lamia at Stadio Verias in Super League 1, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 June 2022 at 16:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Lamia — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Lamia away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veria 0.98 xG and Lamia 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veria attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Lamia attack 0.643 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 0.983 / away 1.051. Data: 0 Veria games / 26 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veria 39% | Draw 33% | Lamia 28%. Fair-value odds: Veria 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Lamia 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veria at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veria vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadio Verias • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jun 2022, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veria 39% | Draw 33% | Lamia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Veria 0.98 / Lamia 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Veria attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Lamia attack 0.643 / def 1.171 | league avg home 0.983 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Veria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Veria xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Lamia xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veria vs Lamia kick off?
Veria vs Lamia kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 11 June 2022 at Stadio Verias.
What was the final score in Veria vs Lamia?
Veria 1 - 2 Lamia.
Where is Veria vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Verias.
What competition is Veria vs Lamia part of?
Veria vs Lamia is a Relegation Round fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Veria vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Veria a 39% chance of winning, Lamia a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Veria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veria vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Veria and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Veria vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veria and Lamia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Veria and Lamia in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Lamia away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Veria's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lamia's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Veria's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veria Win
39%
2.57
33%
3.01
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Veria xG
Total xG
1.76
0.78
Lamia xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 13.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veria vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Veria and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Veria and 0.78 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Veria vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veria
Pre-Season
Lamia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Veria
1
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veria and Lamia?
From 2 meetings on record, Veria have won 0, Lamia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Veria and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 18 June 2022, when Lamia 1-1 Veria.
Who has won more matches between Veria and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veria home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat Veria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Veria 1-2 at Stadio Verias, Relegation Round, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veria 0.98 xG and Lamia 0.78 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lamia outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veria attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Lamia attack 0.64 / defence 1.17, drawn from 0/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veria 39% | Draw 33% | Lamia 28%, with Veria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lamia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.