PAS Giannina 0-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as PAS Giannina welcome PAOK to Stadio Zosimades. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's home record at Stadio Zosimades: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAOK — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of PAS Giannina's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, PAS Giannina have won 2, PAOK 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–2 with PAOK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
PAOK trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 44% versus PAOK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 39% | PAOK 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.90 xG and PAOK 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.920 / defence 1.168 | PAOK attack 1.462 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.039. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.462 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 PAS Giannina games / 49 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 16% | Draw 30% | PAOK 55%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 6.25 | Draw 3.33 | PAOK 1.82. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 70% | PAOK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 16% | Draw 30% | PAOK 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG PAS Giannina 0.90 / PAOK 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.920 / def 1.168 | PAOK attack 1.462 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: PAOK (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.77
PAOK xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs PAOK kick off?
PAS Giannina vs PAOK kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
PAS Giannina 0 - 0 PAOK.
Where is PAS Giannina vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs PAOK part of?
PAS Giannina vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 16% chance of winning, PAOK a 55% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PAS Giannina and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
Record (5 meetings): PAS Giannina 2W | Draws 0 | PAOK 3W.
What form are PAS Giannina and PAOK in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. PAOK (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 0.92x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
16%
6.43
30%
3.36
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.67
1.77
PAOK xG
6.43
16%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
3%
37.91
22%
4.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 12.2 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.77 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 20D 23L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.88 PPG from 59 outings (32W 15D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAS Giannina's home form reads 11W 10D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.72 points per game from 29 outings (14W 8D 7L).
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.59 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and PAOK in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 16W 20D 23L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while PAOK have gone 32W 15D 12L in their last 59 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.48 PPG; PAOK away: 1.72 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, PAOK in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and PAOK runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2021, when PAOK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
1
Draws
5
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, PAOK have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when PAOK 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 55%, PAOK 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAS Giannina) and 45% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; PAOK in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 45% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 45% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and PAOK tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, PAOK in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAS Giannina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 24, as PAS Giannina and PAOK drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.90 xG and PAOK 1.77 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAS Giannina fell 0.9 short of their projected output. PAOK landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against PAOK attack 1.46 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 16% | Draw 30% | PAOK 55%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 39%, PAOK 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.