PAS Giannina 1-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Championship Round - 7 as PAS Giannina welcome PAOK to Stadio Zosimades. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
PAS Giannina's home record at Stadio Zosimades: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Zosimades. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
PAOK — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (PAS Giannina) versus 1.30 (PAOK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, PAS Giannina have won 1, PAOK 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
PAOK trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 34% versus PAOK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 25% | PAOK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.97 xG and PAOK 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.029 / defence 1.080 | PAOK attack 1.140 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Data: 26 PAS Giannina games / 26 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 28% | Draw 28% | PAOK 44%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | PAOK 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 40% | PAOK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 28% | Draw 28% | PAOK 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG PAS Giannina 0.97 / PAOK 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.029 / def 1.080 | PAOK attack 1.140 / def 0.959 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: PAOK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.29
PAOK xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs PAOK kick off?
PAS Giannina vs PAOK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
PAS Giannina 1 - 0 PAOK.
Where is PAS Giannina vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs PAOK part of?
PAS Giannina vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 28% chance of winning, PAOK a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAS Giannina and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
Record (3 meetings): PAS Giannina 1W | Draws 0 | PAOK 2W.
What form are PAS Giannina and PAOK in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 1.03x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
28%
3.58
28%
3.54
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.27
1.29
PAOK xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
8%
13.05
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.29 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 10D 11L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.88 PPG from 32 outings (18W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAS Giannina's home form reads 7W 5D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.81 points per game from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.72 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; PAOK in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and PAOK in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 11W 10D 11L in their last 32 games (1.34 PPG), while PAOK have gone 18W 6D 8L in their last 32 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.62 PPG; PAOK away: 1.81 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, PAOK in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and PAOK runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2021, when PAOK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
1
Draws
5
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, PAOK have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when PAOK 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 50%, PAOK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (PAS Giannina) and 50% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; PAOK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 44% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 50% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and PAOK tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, PAOK in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAS Giannina defy the odds to beat PAOK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat PAOK 1-0 at Stadio Zosimades, Championship Round - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.97 xG and PAOK 1.29 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PAOK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against PAOK attack 1.14 / defence 0.96, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 28% | Draw 28% | PAOK 44%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual PAS Giannina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 25%, PAOK 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAOK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.34. Form was overturned, with PAS Giannina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.