PAS Giannina 0-4 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as PAS Giannina welcome PAOK to Stadio Zosimades. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's home record at Stadio Zosimades: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Super League 1 appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAOK — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (PAS Giannina) versus 1.60 (PAOK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, PAS Giannina have won 1, PAOK 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with PAS Giannina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
PAOK trading profile (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 46% versus PAOK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 38% | PAOK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.59 xG and PAOK 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.117 / defence 1.136 | PAOK attack 1.076 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.214. PAOK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing PAS Giannina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 PAS Giannina games / 13 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 40% | Draw 24% | PAOK 36%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | PAOK 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 71% | PAOK 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 40% | Draw 24% | PAOK 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG PAS Giannina 1.59 / PAOK 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.117 / def 1.136 | PAOK attack 1.076 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.48
PAOK xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs PAOK kick off?
PAS Giannina vs PAOK kicked off at 15:15 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
PAS Giannina 0 - 4 PAOK.
Where is PAS Giannina vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs PAOK part of?
PAS Giannina vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 40% chance of winning, PAOK a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PAS Giannina and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
Record (1 meetings): PAS Giannina 1W | Draws 0 | PAOK 0W.
What form are PAS Giannina and PAOK in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 1.12x the league average against PAOK's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
40%
2.47
24%
4.18
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
3.08
1.48
PAOK xG
2.47
40%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.48 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 4D 3L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.69 PPG from 13 outings (7W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 1.69 PPG, PAOK on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAS Giannina's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L).
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.85 scored and 1.38 conceded. PAOK's attacking output running into PAS Giannina's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK in 62%.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and PAOK in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while PAOK have gone 7W 1D 5L in their last 13 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.57 PPG; PAOK away: 1.71 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, PAOK in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and PAOK runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2021, when PAOK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
1
Draws
5
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, PAOK have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when PAOK 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — PAS Giannina at 71%, PAOK at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for PAS Giannina and 71% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of PAS Giannina's games and 71% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAS Giannina vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of PAS Giannina's matches and 71% of PAOK's.
Do PAS Giannina and PAOK tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PAOK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 0-4 hammering of PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat PAS Giannina 0-4 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.59 xG and PAOK 1.48 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. PAS Giannina fell 1.6 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 1.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.12 / defence 1.14 against PAOK attack 1.08 / defence 1.31, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 40% | Draw 24% | PAOK 36%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 38%, PAOK 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.69 PPG, PAOK 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.