PAS Giannina 0-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 4 sees Panathinaikos travel to Stadio Zosimades to take on PAS Giannina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
PAS Giannina at Stadio Zosimades this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Zosimades. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAS Giannina 1.50 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PAS Giannina, 1 for Panathinaikos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Panathinaikos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (PAS Giannina 31% | Panathinaikos 34%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 21% | Panathinaikos 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.20 xG and Panathinaikos 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.032 / defence 1.071 | Panathinaikos attack 0.953 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.050. Data: 26 PAS Giannina games / 26 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 39% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 32%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Panathinaikos 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAS Giannina are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 40% | Panathinaikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 39% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG PAS Giannina 1.20 / Panathinaikos 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.032 / def 1.071 | Panathinaikos attack 0.953 / def 1.178 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Panathinaikos xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
PAS Giannina 0 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 39% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
Record (2 meetings): PAS Giannina 1W | Draws 0 | Panathinaikos 1W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (1.03) and Panathinaikos's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.48
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.27
1.07
Panathinaikos xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.07 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, PAS Giannina have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 11W 9D 9L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Panathinaikos's form line: 14W 5D 10L from 29 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 1.45 PPG, Panathinaikos on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAS Giannina have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L).
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 4W 2D 8L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAS Giannina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.52 scored and 0.79 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Panathinaikos in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Current Season
Panathinaikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 11W 9D 9L in their last 29 games (1.45 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 14W 5D 10L in their last 29 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Panathinaikos away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.79 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.00 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Panathinaikos have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
PAS Giannina
1
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2024, when Panathinaikos 2-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 50%, Panathinaikos 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (PAS Giannina) and 43% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 36%; Panathinaikos in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 36% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 43% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAS Giannina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Zosimades, Championship Round - 4, as PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.20 xG and Panathinaikos 1.07 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAS Giannina fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Panathinaikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Panathinaikos attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 39% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 32%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 21%, Panathinaikos 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.45 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.