PAS Giannina 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 3W 2D 0L from 5 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAS Giannina at 1.80 PPG versus Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 40% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 0% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.97 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.939 / defence 1.045 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.020 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.151. Data: 5 PAS Giannina games / 5 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 26% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 40% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 26% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG PAS Giannina 0.97 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.939 / def 1.045 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.020 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAS Giannina 1 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 26% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-3D-0L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAS Giannina's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
26%
3.81
35%
2.90
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.20
1.23
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
8%
12.99
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.23 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAS Giannina come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 3D 0L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 (2.20 PPG).
Have PAS Giannina or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAS Giannina
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 40%, Olympiakos Piraeus 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for PAS Giannina and 40% for Olympiakos Piraeus.
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 60%; Olympiakos Piraeus in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 40% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 40% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out PAS Giannina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAS Giannina 1-2 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.97 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 26% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 0%, Olympiakos Piraeus 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAS Giannina shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.