PAS Giannina 1-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as PAS Giannina take on Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Asteras Tripolis at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 2W 3D 2L from 7 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.29 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 0.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.71 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAS Giannina's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Stadio Zosimades this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have recorded 2W 2D 3L from 7 outings — 1.14 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 0.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 4 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAS Giannina 1.29 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.14 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 43% versus Asteras Tripolis 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 14% | Asteras Tripolis 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.94 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.930 / defence 1.144 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.641 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.164. Data: 7 PAS Giannina games / 7 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 33% | Draw 38% | Asteras Tripolis 29%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | Asteras Tripolis 3.45. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: PAS Giannina 67% | Asteras Tripolis 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 33% | Draw 38% | Asteras Tripolis 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG PAS Giannina 0.94 / Asteras Tripolis 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.930 / def 1.144 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.641 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Asteras Tripolis xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
PAS Giannina 1 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 33% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 29% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 0.71 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 0.86 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (0.93) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
38%
2.64
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
1.79
0.85
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 14.2 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.85 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 2W 3D 2L from 7 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 3L across 7 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 1.29 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.57 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Asteras Tripolis in 29%.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Asteras Tripolis in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.33 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.33 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAS Giannina
3
Draws
2
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 3, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 67%, Asteras Tripolis 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for PAS Giannina and 33% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 67%; Asteras Tripolis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 33% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 33% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.94 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.85 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.64 / defence 0.93, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 33% | Draw 38% | Asteras Tripolis 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 21% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 14%, Asteras Tripolis 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.29 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.