PAS Giannina 0-3 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAS Giannina at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 10 sees Aris Thessalonikis travel to Stadio Zosimades to take on PAS Giannina. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Zosimades. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. PAS Giannina's 30% rate and Aris Thessalonikis's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PAS Giannina, 0 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (PAS Giannina 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.04 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.028 / defence 1.084 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.831 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 1.050. Data: 26 PAS Giannina games / 26 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 37% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
PAS Giannina dominate the H2H record, yet Aris Thessalonikis are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates PAS Giannina as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 37% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG PAS Giannina 1.04 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.028 / def 1.084 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.831 / def 1.030 | league avg home 0.985 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Aris Thessalonikis xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAS Giannina 0 - 3 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 37% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (3 meetings): PAS Giannina 2W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 0W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (1.03) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.22
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
1.99
0.95
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.95 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 12W 10D 13L from 35 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 10L across 35 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 1.31 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 8W 5D 4L from 17 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 8W 2D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.03 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 12W 10D 13L in their last 35 games (1.31 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 17W 8D 10L in their last 35 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.71 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.53 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
2
Draws
4
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 47%, Aris Thessalonikis 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for PAS Giannina and 29% for Aris Thessalonikis.
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 35%; Aris Thessalonikis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 35% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 29% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Aris Thessalonikis run riot with a 0-3 hammering of PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat PAS Giannina 0-3 at Stadio Zosimades, Championship Round - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.04 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.95 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. PAS Giannina fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 37% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 29%, Aris Thessalonikis 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.31 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.