PAOK 3-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAOK at 1.60 PPG versus Volos NFC's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Volos NFC trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 49% versus Volos NFC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 42% | Volos NFC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.31 xG and Volos NFC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.109 / defence 0.920 | Volos NFC attack 1.334 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.122. Volos NFC have an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 PAOK games / 38 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 32% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 35%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Volos NFC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Volos NFC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 50% | Volos NFC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 32% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG PAOK 1.31 / Volos NFC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.109 / def 0.920 | Volos NFC attack 1.334 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Volos NFC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Volos NFC kick off?
PAOK vs Volos NFC kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
PAOK 3 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is PAOK vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Volos NFC part of?
PAOK vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 32% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both PAOK and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in?
PAOK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.11) and Volos NFC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
32%
3.15
33%
3.01
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.68
1.38
Volos NFC xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
8%
12.49
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for PAOK and 1.38 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 23W 11D 11L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 17W 13D 15L from 45 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAOK on 1.78 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 6W 9D 6L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAOK are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.51 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC in 60%.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 23W 11D 11L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 17W 13D 15L in their last 45 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Volos NFC away?
PAOK's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.05 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.29 PPG.
Have PAOK or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
PAOK
0
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 8, Volos NFC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Volos NFC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 52%, Volos NFC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (PAOK) and 57% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of PAOK's games and 71% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAOK vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of PAOK's recent games and 57% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Volos NFC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Volos NFC 3-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.31 xG and Volos NFC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against Volos NFC attack 1.33 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 32% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 35%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 42%, Volos NFC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.78 PPG, Volos NFC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.