PAOK 4-4 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 4W 0D 1L from 5 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 4W 0D 1L from 5 Super League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAOK at 2.40 PPG versus Volos NFC's 2.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PAOK 40% and Volos NFC 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PAOK 40% | Volos NFC 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.37 xG and Volos NFC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 0.933 / defence 0.995 | Volos NFC attack 1.062 / defence 1.528. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.041. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.528 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 PAOK games / 5 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 40% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 27%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Volos NFC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 40% | Volos NFC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 40% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG PAOK 1.37 / Volos NFC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 0.933 / def 0.995 | Volos NFC attack 1.062 / def 1.528 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: PAOK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Volos NFC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Volos NFC kick off?
PAOK vs Volos NFC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
PAOK 4 - 4 Volos NFC.
Where is PAOK vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Volos NFC part of?
PAOK vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 40% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PAOK and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in?
PAOK (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAOK's attack rating (0.93) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
40%
2.52
33%
3.01
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.47
1.10
Volos NFC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are PAOK and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for PAOK and 1.10 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 4W 0D 1L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC's form line: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games, 2.40 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAOK on 2.40 PPG, Volos NFC on 2.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
PAOK are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Volos NFC's attacking output running into PAOK's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC in 80%.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 (2.40 PPG).
Have PAOK or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
PAOK
0
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 8, Volos NFC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Volos NFC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 40%, Volos NFC 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for PAOK and 100% for Volos NFC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of PAOK's games and 80% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAOK vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of PAOK's matches and 100% of Volos NFC's.
Do PAOK and Volos NFC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK and Volos NFC share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK and Volos NFC finished level at 4-4 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.37 xG and Volos NFC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC outscored their 1.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against Volos NFC attack 1.06 / defence 1.53, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 40% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 27%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 40%, Volos NFC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.40 PPG, Volos NFC 2.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAOK scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.