PAOK 1-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs PAS Giannina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 1 sees PAS Giannina travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 March 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Toumbas — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
PAOK are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PAOK, 1 for PAS Giannina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 4–0 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
PAS Giannina trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 50% versus PAS Giannina 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAOK 50% | PAS Giannina 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.28 xG and PAS Giannina 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.220 / defence 1.046 | PAS Giannina attack 0.632 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.049. Data: 26 PAOK games / 26 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 50% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 20%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | PAS Giannina 5.00. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 60% | PAS Giannina 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 50% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG PAOK 1.28 / PAS Giannina 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.220 / def 1.046 | PAS Giannina attack 0.632 / def 1.057 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: PAOK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.69
PAS Giannina xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs PAS Giannina kick off?
PAOK vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
PAOK 1 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is PAOK vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs PAS Giannina part of?
PAOK vs PAS Giannina is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 50% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both PAOK and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
Record (2 meetings): PAOK 1W | Draws 0 | PAS Giannina 1W.
What form are PAOK and PAS Giannina in?
PAOK (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.22) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.38
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
PAOK xG
Total xG
1.97
0.69
PAS Giannina xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
6%
17.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are PAOK and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for PAOK and 0.69 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 16W 5D 5L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina's form line: 11W 7D 8L from 26 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAS Giannina.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.08 PPG from 13 outings (8W 3D 2L).
On the road, PAS Giannina have gone 4W 4D 5L from 13 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAOK are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.08 scored and 0.92 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against PAS Giannina's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; PAS Giannina in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 16W 5D 5L in their last 26 games (2.04 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or PAS Giannina away?
PAOK's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.08 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 1.23 PPG.
Have PAOK or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
PAOK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2021, when PAOK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
PAOK
1
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, PAOK have won 5, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when PAOK 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — PAOK 54% BTTS, PAS Giannina 15%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for PAOK and 8% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 46%; PAS Giannina in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of PAOK's recent matches and 15% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of PAOK's recent games and 8% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 31% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out PAS Giannina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat PAS Giannina 1-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.28 xG and PAS Giannina 0.69 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.22 / defence 1.05 against PAS Giannina attack 0.63 / defence 1.06, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 50% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 20%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 50%, PAS Giannina 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.54. Form held, and they took the win. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.