PAOK 0-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PAOK at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees PAS Giannina travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.34 xG and PAS Giannina 0.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | PAS Giannina attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 0.341. Data: 0 PAOK games / 0 PAS Giannina games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PAOK 60% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 7%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.67 | Draw 3.03 | PAS Giannina 14.29. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (60%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 24% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 76% — PAS Giannina's lower xG of 0.35 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 24%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 33% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 60% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 24% | xG PAOK 1.34 / PAS Giannina 0.35 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | PAS Giannina attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.370 / away 0.341 • Poisson stance: PAOK (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.35
PAS Giannina xG
24%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs PAS Giannina kick off?
PAOK vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
PAOK 0 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is PAOK vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs PAS Giannina part of?
PAOK vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 60% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 7% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 24% probability that both PAOK and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and PAS Giannina in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAOK's attack rating (0.85) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (19.6%), 2-0 (16.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 60% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
60%
1.68
33%
2.99
7%
14.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
24.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
2 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
PAOK xG
Total xG
1.69
0.35
PAS Giannina xG
1.68
60%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
14.31
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
24%
BTTS Yes
4.10
76%
BTTS No
1.32
Clean Sheet
70%
1.42
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
42%
2.38
2%
54.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 24.7 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.6 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.6%.
How many goals are PAOK and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for PAOK and 0.35 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Pre-Season
PAS Giannina
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
PAOK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2021, when PAOK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
PAOK
1
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, PAOK have won 5, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when PAOK 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as PAS Giannina defy the odds to beat PAOK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat PAOK 0-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.34 xG and PAS Giannina 0.35 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAOK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against PAS Giannina attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 60% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 7%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a PAS Giannina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 24% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.