PAOK 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 4 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Toumbas this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — PAOK are significantly better at Stadio Toumbas than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for PAOK, 2.00 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 48% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 45% | Olympiakos Piraeus 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.13 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.183 / defence 1.071 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.058 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Data: 26 PAOK games / 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 34% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 34% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG PAOK 1.13 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.183 / def 1.071 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.058 / def 0.968 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 4 May 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 1 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 34% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAOK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.06x) against PAOK's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.53
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.32
1.19
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for PAOK and 1.19 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 18W 6D 7L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 22W 7D 2L from 31 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAOK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.07 PPG from 15 outings (9W 4D 2L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 9W 4D 2L from 15 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.74 scored and 0.65 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 18W 6D 7L in their last 31 games (1.94 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 22W 7D 2L in their last 31 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
PAOK's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.07 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.07 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
2
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 53%, Olympiakos Piraeus 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (PAOK) and 53% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of PAOK's recent matches and 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of PAOK's recent games and 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out PAOK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAOK 1-2 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.13 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.19 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.18 / defence 1.07 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 34% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 45%, Olympiakos Piraeus 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.