PAOK 1-1 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Ionikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Ionikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 27 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Toumbas — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ionikos (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 1.50 PPG lead over Ionikos (2.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — PAOK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ionikos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: PAOK 0W, Ionikos 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 2–3 with Ionikos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Ionikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 48% versus Ionikos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 56% | Ionikos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.79 xG and Ionikos 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.304 / defence 1.035 | Ionikos attack 0.862 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 1.074. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 PAOK games / 24 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 57% | Draw 23% | Ionikos 20%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Ionikos 5.00. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 60% | Ionikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 57% | Draw 23% | Ionikos 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG PAOK 1.79 / Ionikos 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.304 / def 1.035 | Ionikos attack 0.862 / def 1.408 | league avg home 0.976 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: PAOK (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ionikos xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Ionikos kick off?
PAOK vs Ionikos kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Ionikos?
PAOK 1 - 1 Ionikos.
Where is PAOK vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Ionikos part of?
PAOK vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 57% chance of winning, Ionikos a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PAOK and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Ionikos?
Record (1 meetings): PAOK 0W | Draws 0 | Ionikos 1W.
What form are PAOK and Ionikos in?
PAOK (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Ionikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Ionikos's attack (0.86x) against PAOK's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.33
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.75
0.96
Ionikos xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
30.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are PAOK and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for PAOK and 0.96 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Ionikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAOK's recent record stands at 15W 3D 5L from 23 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ionikos, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 10L across 23 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ionikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 8W 2D 1L from 11 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ionikos's away record stands at 2W 3D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.04 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Ionikos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 15W 3D 5L in their last 23 games (2.09 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Ionikos away?
PAOK's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.36 PPG; Ionikos away: 0.82 PPG.
Have PAOK or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Ionikos in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
PAOK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 6-0 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ionikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
PAOK
1
Draws
1
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Ionikos?
From 4 meetings on record, PAOK have won 2, Ionikos have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when PAOK 6-0 Ionikos.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Ionikos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 54%, Ionikos 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (PAOK) and 46% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ionikos in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of PAOK's recent matches and 54% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of PAOK's recent games and 46% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Ionikos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK and Ionikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 25, as PAOK and Ionikos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.79 xG and Ionikos 0.96 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.30 / defence 1.03 against Ionikos attack 0.86 / defence 1.41, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 57% | Draw 23% | Ionikos 20%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 56%, Ionikos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Ionikos's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.