PAOK 1-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAOK host Atromitos at Stadio Toumbas in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Toumbas — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PAOK are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for PAOK, 1 for Atromitos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
PAOK in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 58% versus Atromitos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 68% | Atromitos 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.39 xG and Atromitos 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.414 / defence 1.057 | Atromitos attack 0.710 / defence 1.702. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.174. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.414 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.702 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 PAOK games / 19 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 71% | Draw 17% | Atromitos 12%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Atromitos 8.33. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 60% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 71% | Draw 17% | Atromitos 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 53% | xG PAOK 2.39 / Atromitos 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.414 / def 1.057 | Atromitos attack 0.710 / def 1.702 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: PAOK (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Atromitos xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Atromitos kick off?
PAOK vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Atromitos?
PAOK 1 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is PAOK vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Atromitos part of?
PAOK vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 71% chance of winning, Atromitos a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PAOK and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Atromitos?
Record (1 meetings): PAOK 0W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are PAOK and Atromitos in?
PAOK (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Atromitos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.41x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 1.70x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.84
12%
8.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.27
0.88
Atromitos xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
8.31
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
9%
10.91
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
1%
90.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for PAOK and 0.88 for Atromitos, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Atromitos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAOK come into this having played 19 games, going 13W 2D 4L for 2.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 0.68 PPG from 19 outings (3W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.48 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAOK's home form reads 7W 2D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.30 points per game from 10 outings (0W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Atromitos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 13W 2D 4L in their last 19 games (2.16 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 3W 4D 12L in their last 19 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Atromitos away?
PAOK's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.30 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.30 PPG.
Have PAOK or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Atromitos in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and Atromitos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2024, when PAOK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PAOK
1
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 7, Atromitos have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Atromitos 2-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Atromitos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 60%, Atromitos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for PAOK and 60% for Atromitos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of PAOK's games and 50% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAOK vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of PAOK's matches and 60% of Atromitos's.
Do PAOK and Atromitos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Atromitos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Atromitos 1-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.39 xG and Atromitos 0.88 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PAOK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Atromitos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.41 / defence 1.06 against Atromitos attack 0.71 / defence 1.70, drawn from 21/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 71% | Draw 17% | Atromitos 12%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 68%, Atromitos 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atromitos's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.