Panetolikos 0-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panetolikos face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Stadio Panetolikou to face Panetolikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Thursday 22 December 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Panetolikou this season.
PAOK have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PAOK are 0.60 PPG clear of Panetolikos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
PAOK hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with PAOK winning.
It is worth noting that PAOK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 52% versus PAOK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 50% | PAOK 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.86 xG and PAOK 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.819 / defence 1.109 | PAOK attack 1.119 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.044. Data: 39 Panetolikos games / 39 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 21% | Draw 36% | PAOK 43%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 4.76 | Draw 2.78 | PAOK 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 40% | PAOK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Dec 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 21% | Draw 36% | PAOK 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Panetolikos 0.86 / PAOK 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.819 / def 1.109 | PAOK attack 1.119 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: PAOK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.29
PAOK xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panetolikos vs PAOK kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 22 December 2022 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Panetolikos 0 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Panetolikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs PAOK part of?
Panetolikos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 21% chance of winning, PAOK a 43% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Panetolikos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAOK?
Record (3 meetings): Panetolikos 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 3W.
What form are Panetolikos and PAOK in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. PAOK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panetolikos's attack rating (0.82) and PAOK's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.12x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
21%
4.80
36%
2.75
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.15
1.29
PAOK xG
4.80
21%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
6%
17.52
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.0 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.29 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Panetolikos have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 14W 11D 21L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK's form line: 24W 11D 11L from 46 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panetolikos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panetolikos have posted 0.91 PPG from 22 outings (5W 5D 12L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 9W 6D 7L from 22 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.61 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while PAOK have gone 24W 11D 11L in their last 46 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.91 PPG; PAOK away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, PAOK in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 0-3 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Panetolikos
1
Draws
9
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 0, PAOK have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-3 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 46%, PAOK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Panetolikos) and 41% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; PAOK in 36%; Panetolikos have failed to score in 41% of games; PAOK in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 46% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Panetolikos's recent games and 41% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and PAOK tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, PAOK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panetolikos 0-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.86 xG and PAOK 1.29 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against PAOK attack 1.12 / defence 0.85, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 21% | Draw 36% | PAOK 43%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 50%, PAOK 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.