Panetolikos 1-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Panetolikos take on PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Stadio Panetolikou to face Panetolikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Panetolikos. A 0.50 PPG lead over PAOK (2.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.73 xG and PAOK 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.819 / defence 1.024 | PAOK attack 0.861 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 0.946. Data: 2 Panetolikos games / 2 PAOK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 29% | Draw 36% | PAOK 35%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | PAOK 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Panetolikos's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 29% | Draw 36% | PAOK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG Panetolikos 0.73 / PAOK 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.819 / def 1.024 | PAOK attack 0.861 / def 1.010 | league avg home 0.880 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.83
PAOK xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panetolikos vs PAOK kicked off at 16:15 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Panetolikos 1 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Panetolikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs PAOK part of?
Panetolikos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 29% chance of winning, PAOK a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Panetolikos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and PAOK in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W. PAOK (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panetolikos's attack rating (0.82) and PAOK's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (0.86x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.44
36%
2.79
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.56
0.83
PAOK xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.42
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.0 | 17.5 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.6%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.83 for PAOK, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Panetolikos have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Panetolikos are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAOK.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK in 0%.
Defensively: Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; PAOK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while PAOK have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Panetolikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, PAOK in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 0-3 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Panetolikos
1
Draws
9
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 0, PAOK have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-3 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 0% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Panetolikos's recent games and 0% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Panetolikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.73 xG and PAOK 0.83 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against PAOK attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 29% | Draw 36% | PAOK 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 50%, PAOK 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Panetolikos arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with PAOK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Panetolikos shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.