Panetolikos 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Panetolikou to face Panetolikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games (0.71 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.14 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panetolikos's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 games at Stadio Panetolikou this term (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 2D 0L across 7 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.43 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 0.57. Defensively, 0.57 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 3W 0D 0L from 3 away games — 3.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 2.43 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Olympiakos Piraeus are 1.72 PPG clear of Panetolikos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.43 vs 0.71). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Panetolikos 86% and Olympiakos Piraeus 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Panetolikos 86% | Olympiakos Piraeus 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.90 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.817 / defence 1.365 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.083 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.153. Data: 7 Panetolikos games / 7 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 18% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 55%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 75% | Olympiakos Piraeus 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 18% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Panetolikos 0.90 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.817 / def 1.365 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.083 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panetolikos 1 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 18% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.14 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-2D-0L in 7 | 2.43 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 0.57 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Panetolikos's attack rating (0.82) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.08x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
18%
5.48
27%
3.73
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.61
1.71
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
5.48
18%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
3%
30.17
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 12.6 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.71 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panetolikos come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 2D 4L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.43 PPG from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.72 PPG clear of Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Panetolikos's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.71 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 3.00 points per game from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.43 PPG overall record — Olympiakos Piraeus travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.71 scored and 0.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 2D 0L in their last 7 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.00 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-1 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Panetolikos
1
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Panetolikos, 67% for Olympiakos Piraeus — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Panetolikos and 67% for Olympiakos Piraeus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Panetolikos's games and 67% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Panetolikos's matches and 67% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Panetolikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.90 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.71 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 1.36 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 18% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 55%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 86%, Olympiakos Piraeus 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.