Panetolikos 1-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Panetolikos take on OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Panetolikos welcome OFI to Stadio Panetolikou. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Panetolikou, Panetolikos have gone 0W 1D 2L this season (3 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Panetolikou this season.
OFI — All Games: 0W 4D 1L from 5 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panetolikos 1.00 PPG, OFI 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Panetolikos register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, OFI in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
OFI in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Panetolikos 80% and OFI 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 80% | OFI 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.83 xG and OFI 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.825 / defence 1.345 | OFI attack 0.773 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.041. Data: 5 Panetolikos games / 5 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 25% | Draw 38% | OFI 38%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 4.00 | Draw 2.63 | OFI 2.63. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Panetolikos 67% | OFI 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 25% | Draw 38% | OFI 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Panetolikos 0.83 / OFI 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.825 / def 1.345 | OFI attack 0.773 / def 1.056 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.08
OFI xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs OFI kick off?
Panetolikos vs OFI kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs OFI?
Panetolikos 1 - 2 OFI.
Where is Panetolikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs OFI part of?
Panetolikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 25% chance of winning, OFI a 38% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Panetolikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. OFI (all comps): 0W-4D-1L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.82x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
4.08
38%
2.64
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.92
1.08
OFI xG
4.08
25%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 15.9 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.08 for OFI, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OFI sit at 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (0W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.00 PPG, OFI on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; OFI in 60%.
Defensively: OFI in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while OFI have gone 0W 4D 1L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Panetolikos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, OFI in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Panetolikos
1
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 5, OFI have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when OFI 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and OFI?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Panetolikos at 80%, OFI at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Panetolikos and 40% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI in 40%; OFI in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Panetolikos's games and 60% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panetolikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Panetolikos's matches and 40% of OFI's.
Do Panetolikos and OFI tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, OFI in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Panetolikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.83 xG and OFI 1.08 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. OFI outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 1.34 against OFI attack 0.77 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 25% | Draw 38% | OFI 38%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 80%, OFI 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.00 PPG, OFI 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.