Panetolikos 0-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Panetolikou plays host to Panetolikos versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 16 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panetolikos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Panetolikou — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Asteras Tripolis (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 55% versus Asteras Tripolis 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 59% | Asteras Tripolis 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.02 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.759 / defence 1.092 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.825 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.050. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Asteras Tripolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Panetolikos games / 26 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 36% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 32%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Asteras Tripolis 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 40% | Asteras Tripolis 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 36% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Panetolikos 1.02 / Asteras Tripolis 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.759 / def 1.092 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.825 / def 1.367 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Asteras Tripolis xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Panetolikos 0 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 36% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.82x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
36%
2.74
31%
3.20
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.97
0.95
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.95 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 5D 15L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.34 PPG from 29 outings (11W 6D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.34 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Panetolikos's home form reads 4W 2D 8L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 1.14 points per game from 14 outings (4W 4D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.07 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 9W 5D 15L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Asteras Tripolis's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.00 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Asteras Tripolis go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Panetolikos
3
Draws
5
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 2, Asteras Tripolis have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Panetolikos 1-2 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 57%, Asteras Tripolis 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Panetolikos) and 29% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 43%; Asteras Tripolis in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 43% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Panetolikos's recent games and 29% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Panetolikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 4, as Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.02 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.95 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.82 / defence 1.37, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 36% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 32%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 59%, Asteras Tripolis 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.10 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.