Panathinaikos 5-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 46%, yet in-form Volos NFC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis to take on Panathinaikos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Panathinaikos — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 3W 0D 0L from 3 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Volos NFC — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Panathinaikos 0% | Volos NFC 67%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Panathinaikos 33% | Volos NFC 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.39 xG and Volos NFC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.298 / defence 1.035 | Volos NFC attack 1.154 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 0.817. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 1.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 3 Panathinaikos games / 3 Volos NFC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 26%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Volos NFC 3.85. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Volos NFC (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 0% | Volos NFC 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Panathinaikos 1.39 / Volos NFC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.298 / def 1.035 | Volos NFC attack 1.154 / def 1.146 | league avg home 0.935 / away 0.817 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Volos NFC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Panathinaikos 5 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 46% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Panathinaikos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panathinaikos and Volos NFC in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-L-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.30) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.68
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.37
0.98
Volos NFC xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.98 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panathinaikos's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 0L across 3 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Volos NFC by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panathinaikos heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 2.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Volos NFC's attacking output running into Panathinaikos's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Panathinaikos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Volos NFC in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Panathinaikos or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panathinaikos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when Panathinaikos won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 8, Volos NFC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Panathinaikos 2-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Volos NFC?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Panathinaikos 0% BTTS, Volos NFC 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Panathinaikos and 100% for Volos NFC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Volos NFC in 33%; Panathinaikos have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 67% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Panathinaikos's matches and 100% of Volos NFC's.
Do Panathinaikos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Panathinaikos run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Volos NFC 5-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.39 xG and Volos NFC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.30 / defence 1.03 against Volos NFC attack 1.15 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 26%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 33%, Volos NFC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Panathinaikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Panathinaikos scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Volos NFC managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.