Panathinaikos 1-3 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 53%, yet in-form PAOK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Panathinaikos vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis plays host to Panathinaikos versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games (1.38 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 0.75 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.75 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.38 — Panathinaikos are significantly better at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis than their overall form suggests.
PAOK have collected 2.00 PPG across 8 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.12 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAOK have posted 3W 0D 1L from 4 away outings — 2.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, PAOK are the stronger side — 0.62 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.38). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 38% versus PAOK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 50% | PAOK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.86 xG and PAOK 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.489 / defence 0.914 | PAOK attack 1.048 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.133. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.489 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 Panathinaikos games / 8 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 53% | Draw 27% | PAOK 20%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | PAOK 5.00. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PAOK (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 50% | PAOK 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 53% | Draw 27% | PAOK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Panathinaikos 1.86 / PAOK 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.489 / def 0.914 | PAOK attack 1.048 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
1.08
PAOK xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panathinaikos vs PAOK kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Panathinaikos 1 - 3 PAOK.
Where is Panathinaikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs PAOK part of?
Panathinaikos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 53% chance of winning, PAOK a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Panathinaikos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panathinaikos and PAOK in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panathinaikos's attacking strength (1.49x league average) is weighed against PAOK's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.05x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.66
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.95
1.08
PAOK xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
3%
33.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.08 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 3W 2D 3L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK's form line: 5W 1D 2L from 8 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panathinaikos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, PAOK have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.12 scored and 1.25 conceded. PAOK's attacking output running into Panathinaikos's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK in 62%.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while PAOK have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or PAOK away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.50 PPG; PAOK away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, PAOK in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 4-1 on 15 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 3, PAOK have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Panathinaikos 2-2 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 50%, PAOK 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Panathinaikos and 75% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Panathinaikos's games and 75% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panathinaikos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Panathinaikos's matches and 75% of PAOK's.
Do Panathinaikos and PAOK tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PAOK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Panathinaikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panathinaikos 1-3 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.86 xG and PAOK 1.08 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Panathinaikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.49 / defence 0.91 against PAOK attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 53% | Draw 27% | PAOK 20%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a PAOK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 50%, PAOK 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.