Panathinaikos 1-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Championship Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panathinaikos have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 34% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 38% | Olympiakos Piraeus 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.15 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.228 / defence 0.834 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.076 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.050. Data: 26 Panathinaikos games / 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 40% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 20% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 40% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Panathinaikos 1.15 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.228 / def 0.834 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.076 / def 0.950 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panathinaikos 1 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 40% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.23) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.08x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
40%
2.47
30%
3.34
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.09
0.94
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.94 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 13W 6D 10L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 21W 7D 1L from 29 games, 2.41 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panathinaikos.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.14 PPG from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 9W 4D 1L from 14 away games — 2.21 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.76 scored and 0.59 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 13W 6D 10L in their last 29 games (1.55 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 21W 7D 1L in their last 29 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.14 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Panathinaikos
4
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 36%, Olympiakos Piraeus 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Panathinaikos) and 57% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 57% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 57% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.15 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.94 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.23 / defence 0.83 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 40% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 38%, Olympiakos Piraeus 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.55. Form was overturned, with Panathinaikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.