Panathinaikos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 42%, yet in-form Olympiakos Piraeus provide a compelling counter-argument — this Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panathinaikos have posted 7W 1D 1L at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis — 2.44 PPG. They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. Their home PPG of 2.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Panathinaikos are significantly better at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 7W 1D 0L from 8 away fixtures this term (2.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 38% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 44% | Olympiakos Piraeus 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.35 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.340 / defence 0.826 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.188 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.148. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Panathinaikos games / 16 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 42% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Olympiakos Piraeus (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Panathinaikos 33% | Olympiakos Piraeus 62%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 42% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Panathinaikos 1.35 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.340 / def 0.826 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.188 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panathinaikos 0 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 42% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.34) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.19x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.71
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.48
1.13
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.13 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 8W 2D 6L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 13W 3D 0L from 16 games, 2.62 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panathinaikos.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.38 PPG from 8 outings (6W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 7W 1D 0L from 8 away games — 2.75 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.75 scored and 0.56 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 8W 2D 6L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 13W 3D 0L in their last 16 (2.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.38 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.75 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Panathinaikos
4
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 38%, Olympiakos Piraeus 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Panathinaikos) and 75% (Olympiakos Piraeus). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 62% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Panathinaikos's matches and 75% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Panathinaikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.35 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.13 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panathinaikos fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.34 / defence 0.83 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.19 / defence 0.96, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 42% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 44%, Olympiakos Piraeus 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.