Panathinaikos 1-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Panathinaikos host OFI at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 December 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Panathinaikos — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OFI have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Panathinaikos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Panathinaikos have won 1, OFI 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
OFI in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 34% versus OFI 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 36% | OFI 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.55 xG and OFI 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.083 / defence 0.681 | OFI attack 0.911 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.063. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Panathinaikos games / 40 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 56% | Draw 32% | OFI 12%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.79 | Draw 3.12 | OFI 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (56%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 32% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 20% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 56% | Draw 32% | OFI 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Panathinaikos 1.55 / OFI 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.083 / def 0.681 | OFI attack 0.911 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.66
OFI xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs OFI kick off?
Panathinaikos vs OFI kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Panathinaikos 1 - 1 OFI.
Where is Panathinaikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs OFI part of?
Panathinaikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 56% chance of winning, OFI a 12% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Panathinaikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and OFI?
Record (3 meetings): Panathinaikos 1W | Draws 1 | OFI 1W.
What form are Panathinaikos and OFI in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. OFI (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.08) and OFI's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
56%
1.80
32%
3.12
12%
8.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.21
0.66
OFI xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
8.12
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
3%
38.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.66 for OFI, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panathinaikos's recent record stands at 29W 9D 9L from 47 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 19L across 47 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Panathinaikos have managed 17W 3D 2L from 22 games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.04 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OFI's away record stands at 6W 8D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.06 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 29W 9D 9L in their last 47 games (2.04 PPG), while OFI have gone 13W 15D 19L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or OFI away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.45 PPG; OFI away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, OFI in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Panathinaikos go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
1
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 6, OFI have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 4-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and OFI?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Panathinaikos 23% BTTS, OFI 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Panathinaikos) and 50% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; OFI in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 46% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and OFI tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, OFI in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 15, as Panathinaikos and OFI drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.55 xG and OFI 0.66 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.08 / defence 0.68 against OFI attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 56% | Draw 32% | OFI 12%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 36%, OFI 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.