Panathinaikos 1-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Levadiakos meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panathinaikos have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Panathinaikos have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Panathinaikos's favour (2.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Panathinaikos have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Levadiakos in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.46 xG and Levadiakos 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 0.992 / defence 0.822 | Levadiakos attack 0.650 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 0.938. Data: 28 Panathinaikos games / 2 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 60% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 11%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.67 | Draw 3.45 | Levadiakos 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (60%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Levadiakos's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 60% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 32% | xG Panathinaikos 1.46 / Levadiakos 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 0.992 / def 0.822 | Levadiakos attack 0.650 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.276 / away 0.938 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Levadiakos xG
32%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Panathinaikos 1 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 60% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 11% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Panathinaikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panathinaikos's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.65x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.50.
The sample (28/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 2-0 (15.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
60%
1.68
29%
3.42
11%
8.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
1.96
0.50
Levadiakos xG
1.68
60%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
8.90
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.16
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
61%
1.65
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
3%
38.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 20.6 | 10.3 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.50 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panathinaikos come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panathinaikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.50 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panathinaikos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 0%.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Levadiakos in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Panathinaikos or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panathinaikos won 1-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 5, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-4 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 0% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Levadiakos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Levadiakos 1-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.46 xG and Levadiakos 0.50 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against Levadiakos attack 0.65 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 60% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 11%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 0%, Levadiakos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.